An informed prediction uses the available information to make an educated guess about what an answer will be. In math this is called probability.
1. Write these words on the board:
certain, probable(likely), unlikely, impossible
Then call up sets of students and ask questions about each set of students. Here are some examples:
Set of four boys in a race: What is the probably of a girl winning the race? Impossible
Set of one boy and three girls in a race: What is the probability of a girl winning the race? Probable
Set of four students, all with brown eyes: If you were blindfolded, what is the probably of you choosing a student with brown eyes? Certain
2. Pairs of students will do this next activity. Each student should have a piece of paper and a pencil. Give each pair of students a coin. When tossing the coin, what is the probability that you will get heads half of the time? While one student flips the coin, the other student tallies up the results in a “heads" column and a “tails" column. Flip the coin twenty times. Then switch places and do it again. Discuss the results.
Do the same activity with dice. What is the probability that you will roll the same number every time? Half of the time?
Tally the roll of the dice in columns of 1-6. Discuss the result. Were you surprised by the findings?
Judy Moody Predicts the Future by Megan McDonald is another entertaining entry in the list of Judy Moody books. I predict that your students will enjoy the follow-up activities, too!